welcome to pajaree's blog: 2009

* Published: 24/12/2009 at 12:00 AM
* Bangkok Post Newspaper section: News
http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/29875/abhisit-challenges-are-intensifying

When Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva assumed office under unusual circumstances a year ago, many an analyst wrote off his administration as a military-crafted puppet regime equipped with bare parliamentary legitimacy that would not last six months. Mr Abhisit has not only transcended this abortive time frame but his administration is moving into its second year with its powerful backing still intact, the structural makeup of Thai politics still in its favour.

As the logic of Mr Abhisit's rise to power still holds, those who are writing him off for the next 12 months may have much to answer for at this time next year.

But the going will get tougher as the prime minister hangs on. His twin challenges for the coming year are the same as he set out at the outset of his term. The government will have to achieve a measure of reconciliation on the one hand and workable political reforms on the other.

These two overarching objectives have become more daunting and intense over the past year.

The prime minister's reconciliation efforts must be at least threefold.

First, while a crucial segment of his backing emanates from the People's Alliance for Democracy yellow shirts, Mr Abhisit has to acknowledge the genuine existence of the red-shirted columns, and not to dismiss them as simply paid lackeys of fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

That they keep coming back despite repeated insults about their lack of intelligence and their gullibility to Thaksin's financial manipulation suggests the red shirts under the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship are a force to be reckoned with. They can be disenfranchised and marginalised, but they appear unwilling to be denied and dismissed.

Until their grievances and claims of gross injustice are recognised and accommodated, the Abhisit government will tread on shaky ground, precluding a return to peace and a way forward.

That Mr Abhisit keeps alluding to "principles and institutions" when he talks about the red shirts has not helped. Somehow the red shirts have been lumped into Thaksin's manoeuvres and in turn into a subversive movement out to undermine the throne. This has only cultivated deeper alienation and resentment among those who have supported Thaksin's successive political parties from Thai Rak Thai and People's Power to Puea Thai.

The way ahead on this front has been clear for some time. The prime minister has to connect with the red shirts while convincing them to reject Thaksin for his corruption and abuses of power. Whether Mr Abhisit is willing and able to separate and embrace the red shirts from Thaksin will set the tone for 2010.

Second, as the need to separate Thaksin's corruption from his pro-poor legacy becomes common knowledge, the way ahead for ameliorating the Malay-Muslim southern insurgency appears similarly clear. Political solutions are urged as often as they are discarded. Greater administrative autonomy for the southern border provinces, predominated by Malay ethnicity and Islamic faith, has not been rocket science. It was recommended in the National Reconciliation Commission's report as far back as 2006. Autonomy for the deep south has been recommended time and again since. The prime minister has even recognised this imperative.

But little headway has been made in the face of a mounting death toll, now more than 3,800.

While progress in reaching accommodation in the deep South will be complex and time-consuming, it necessarily starts with the will and resolve of the political leadership in Bangkok. It requires the resetting of government-army relations. Whether the prime minister can change tack on the ground will determine if the spiral in what is now one of the world's deadliest internal conflicts can be reversed.

Third, Mr Abhisit needs to broadly set the pace and tone to reconcile Thailand's past inheritance and its future demands and expectations in the early 21st century.

Somehow the prime minister has to strike an acceptable middle ground that enables Thailand to move forward with its constitutional monarchy and democratic development in tandem. He has to both secure the throne and strengthen democratic institutions. Since the September 2006 military coup, democratic institutions from parliament to political parties and elected politicians have been virtually decimated to ground zero. No democracy can be sound and healthy when its outcome is determined more by the military and judiciary than its electorate.

On political reforms, Mr Abhisit is right to note that it takes two to tango. If the opposition opts out of the constitutional amendment process, reforms cannot take place. Yet initial reform efforts produced government-appointed committee recommendations to amend six areas of the 2007 charter, which was drafted by a military-appointed assembly.

If Mr Abhisit is sincere about reforms, his government can set up an agenda and a corresponding timetable, after which the mandate can be returned to voters. The process could even include a referendum. Even the Democrats' coalition partners are in favour of this outcome.

Clamouring for new polls, the opposition Puea Thai party is likely go along with new rules accompanied by a timeline. Another election would not solve everything but it would buy time and release pent-up voter frustrations. Without the renewal of electoral mandate, the rumblings from those who feel their votes have been robbed are unlikely to cease.

Otherwise we are likely to see more of the same in 2010 but with greater intensity and growing risks of open confrontation and violence.

Compared to recent PMs, Mr Abhisit has become an elected version of the technocratic Anand Panyarachun, a technocrat version of the unelected Surayud Chulanont, a globalised version of Chuan Leekpai, and a mixed contrast to Thaksin, leaving Banharn Silpa-archa and Chavalit Yongchaiyudh in the dust.

He needs to outperform much more than outmanoeuvre his opponents. To reconcile and reform and pave the way forward, the prime minister also must genuinely acknowledge, accept and accommodate many of the claims and grievances of his opponents.

About the author
Thitinan Pongsudhirak
The writer is director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.